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Japan core inflation dips to lowest since March as rice price shock shows signs of fading

Japan's core inflation rate eased to 3.1%, down from 3.3%, as rice prices surged 90.7% year-on-year in July, prompting government intervention to curb costs.

  • On Aug 22, Japan's internal affairs ministry reported nationwide core CPI rose 3.1 percent in July, slowing from 3.3 percent in June but remaining above the Bank of Japan's two-percent target.
  • Rice prices in Japan surged 90.7 percent year-on-year in July after even larger jumps in May and June, reflecting a sharp staple-food shock caused by a very hot summer, panic-buying, alleged hoarding and more tourists.
  • Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba appointed a new farm minister and released rice from emergency stocks, while the Japanese government changed its decades-old crop policy earlier this month to cool prices.
  • Markets say slowing inflation above 2 percent keeps BOJ rate-hike hopes alive, with Taro Kimura seeing a 25-basis-point October rise and a Reuters poll showing 63 percent expect rates at least 0.75 from 0.5 by end-2025.
  • Politically, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition lost its majority amid inflation anger, while external pressure from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the US-Japan trade deal reinforced expectations for tighter policy as energy prices fell 0.3 percent.
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Rice prices up 91 pct year-on-year in Japan

Rice prices in Japan soared 90.7 percent in July year-on-year, official data showed Friday, but the rate of increase slowed from previous months offering some relief for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

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Japan July Core CPI Rises 3.1% Yr/yr

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El Economista broke the news in on Thursday, August 21, 2025.
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