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Italy's proposed bonus-seat electoral system could give Meloni comfortable win, studies show

The reform introduces a seat bonus capped at 60% to secure a stable majority for any coalition winning over 40%, potentially ensuring Meloni's coalition a strong parliamentary lead.

  • This week, ruling centre-right parties struck a deal to switch to a fully proportional system, and studies on Friday showed it could boost Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's re-election chances next year.
  • Aimed at securing a stable majority, the seat bonus activates when a coalition wins more than 40%, which supporters say ensures stability after the 2027 vote, while the Democratic Party and Stefano Bonaccini accuse it of distorting the system.
  • YouTrend's simulations show the bonus amplifies small leads into parliamentary majorities, awarding a 70-seat bonus in the 400-seat lower house and a 35-seat bonus in the 200-seat Senate, capped at 60%.
  • Parliament must approve the reform before it takes effect, and a broad opposition alliance expected next year could use southern Italy's Five Star Movement strongholds to its advantage.
  • With 2027 in view, the reform could lock in parliamentary arithmetic as a broad opposition alliance expected next year might lose an edge in southern Italy, while YouTrend and Noto Sondaggi show small leads could yield majorities.
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Italy's proposed bonus-seat electoral system could give Meloni comfortable win, studies show

A proposed overhaul of Italy's voting system could boost Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's re-election chances next year, studies showed on Friday, suggesting even a small lead over the opposition would be enough to give her a comfortable win.

·United Kingdom
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Lean Right

National electoral law seems destined to change again, just over a year after the next general elections in 2027. It would be a record for Italy, which already...

·Milan, Italy
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Lean Right

Stability or representativeness. This is the classic dilemma in Italy, a country that in its 80 years as a republic has had more than 70 government teams. Giorgia Meloni, the...

·Madrid, Spain
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Market Screener broke the news in on Friday, February 27, 2026.
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