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Australians Use Banned Bookie as War Wagers Spark Journalist Death Threats

More than $14 million was wagered on an Iran-Israel missile strike market before a reporter covering the event received death threats days later.

  • Australian bettors used VPNs to access a banned New York–based prediction market and place bets on military events like Ayatollah Khamenei leaving office and US forces entering Iran.
  • The regulator last year warned Polymarket’s parent company after ACMA’s in-house research found 1.88 million visits from Australia in six months to last June.
  • Analysis found on February 27 more than 150 accounts, mostly new, placed over $US850,000 betting there would be a strike by the 28th.
  • Fabian began receiving death threats five days after his blog post, including one saying 'After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you', Fabian said.
  • Experts warn that Australians can access offshore sites lacking consumer protections, raising moral and regulatory concerns, as Karoline Thomsen, UNSW Canberra PhD candidate, noted the high potential for insider trading.
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A bet of $14 million was launched on the Polymarket platform about an Iranian strike on Israel.

·Paris, France
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The Washington Post broke the news in on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.
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