US EditionIMF raises 2025 global growth forecast on 'modest' US trade shock
The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% for this year, citing resilience despite trade tensions and tariff shocks that continue to pose risks, IMF chief economist said.
- On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned of dim prospects for the global economy, projecting growth of 3.2% this year and 3.1% in 2026 in its World Economic Outlook report.
- After a recent lull, trade tensions flared when President Donald Trump threatened 100% duties starting Nov. 1, creating uncertainty that weighs on growth, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.
- U.S. importers and retailers have borne most tariff costs, as Gourinchas wrote, `Most countries refrained from retaliation, keeping instead the trading system largely open.`
- Core inflation has risen to 2.9% on the Federal Reserve's preferred core inflation measure, while U.S. employers’ hiring has nearly halted amid tariff-related uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund warns.
- AI investment has so far cushioned the blow by boosting U.S. growth, but the International Monetary Fund warns financial bubbles and fiscal strains could force spending cuts in Europe.
157 Articles
157 Articles
Three percent of the current year and 2026. According to the IMF, the global economy is remarkably good despite US tariffs.
The International Monetary Fund slightly revised its growth forecast upwards, but warned that the global trade dispute had not been resolved. Unusually, the Fund clearly criticised China and the US.
Outlook for world economy ‘dim’, warns IMF
The outlook for the world economy is “dim”, the IMF warned today. Though the impact of President Trump’s trade war has been less than feared, the Fund still worries that rising tariffs will disrupt world trade And while it will tell the Chancellor that UK economic growth is holding up, it thinks we’ve got a bigger problem with inflation.
With a limited impact to date on economic activity and prices, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved prospects for global economic growth by 2025 to 3.2 percent, 0.2 percentage points from its June projections. While by 2026 it kept them at 3.1 percent by warning that the adverse effects of trade policies are beginning to be noticed.“As the world economy slides into a more fragmented landscape, risks to prospects increase. Tactics that …
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