IEA warns 2026 oil supply gap will widen on delayed return of normal Gulf flows
The agency said world supply will fall 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026 as Middle East disruptions and inventories tighten the market.
- On Friday, the International Energy Agency slashed its global oil demand outlook, projecting a 2.5 million barrel-per-day decline this year, 940,000 more than expected last month.
- Hostilities in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have tightened global refining capacity, with the Hormuz Strait in an Iranian chokehold and Iran-backed Houthi rebels advancing on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
- U.S. diesel prices hit $6 for the first time, while Brent crude stood above $104.5 per barrel on Friday. American households paid more than $760 in additional fuel costs since February, per Brown University's Iran War Energy Cost Tracker.
- The Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for next year's prices on Thursday by more than 8%, while the IEA noted global oil inventories fell by 95 million barrels last month.
- A "full recovery in supplies from Middle East producers" is now deferred until 2027, the IEA warned, though consumption is projected to recover by 2.6 million barrels per day that year.
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The Economic Times
Free Malaysia Today NewsIEA slashes oil demand forecast as prices surge
The International Energy Agency on Friday further reduced its forecast for global oil demand this year, citing the recent escalation in the Mideast war and resurgent energy prices. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and other energy targets are also taking a toll, driving up global fuel prices that will lead consumers to reduce their purchases, the agency said.
Closing up for European Bags, helped by the drop in oil prices after the Iea forecast on a decline in demand and supply due to the war in Iran. (ANSA)
Josu Jon Imaz has already explained that the current problem of the European energy market is the lack of refining capacity.
Now it foresees a drop of 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in one year, compared to the decrease of 1.6 estimated in August
Evening Standard
IEA slashes global oil demand and supply forecast again as Iran war intensifies
The Paris-based agency is now predicting 2026 worldwide oil consumption dropping by 2.5 million barrels a day versus 2025 as prices surge.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday further lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year, citing the recent escalation in the Middle East war and rising energy prices.
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