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IEA trims renewables outlook as US policy shifts and China auction reforms weigh

The International Energy Agency cut its 2030 global renewable growth forecast by 900 gigawatts due to US tax credit phase-out and China's tariff policy shift, while India and Europe show gains.

  • On October 7, the International Energy Agency revised its projection for global renewable power expansion by 2030, lowering it by 900 gigawatts compared to last year's estimate.
  • The cut resulted from weaker prospects in the United States, driven by an early phase-out of federal tax incentives and tighter regulations, and slowing growth in China due to auction reforms.
  • Solar energy is driving most of the new global renewable capacity, making up around 80% of growth, while projections for offshore wind have been reduced due to changes in government policies, manufacturing and shipping challenges, and increased expenses.
  • IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called on policymakers to improve grid reliability and secure supply chains, noting that over 90% of critical supply chain components—such as those for solar and rare-earth materials—are still predominantly sourced from China.
  • Despite these challenges, India and Europe are on track for strong renewable growth, but the overall forecast now falls short of the global goal to triple renewable output by 2030.
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The growth of energy generation from renewable sources – such as solar, wind, hydrogen and geothermal energy – will be lower in the coming years than initially thought.

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Bloomberg broke the news in United States on Tuesday, October 7, 2025.
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