IEA sees significant 2027 oil surplus after Hormuz recovery
The agency said supply could exceed demand by 5.05 million barrels per day in 2027 as Middle East barrels return.
- The International Energy Agency reported that a potential agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a major oil surplus by 2027, following Middle East conflict supply shocks that eroded global crude demand.
- Observed global inventories fell by 143 million barrels in May, accelerating the 74 million barrel draw in April, after shedding about 3.8 million barrels per day since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28.
- Shipments through the Strait rebounded earlier this month, though the IEA added that "Mines will have to be removed from the main shipping lanes and supply chains will take time to normalize."
- Oil prices tumbled to a three-month low ahead of the Iran agreement signing in Geneva on Friday, with Brent crude 0.7% lower on Wednesday and West Texas Intermediate futures for July delivery almost 1.1% down at $75.18.
- Supply is expected to surge by around 8 million barrels per day to roughly 110 million barrels per day, heavily outweighing a modest recovery in global oil demand of 2 million barrels per day to 105.3 million barrels per day in 2027.
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38 Articles
With Iran-US peace deal in sight, IEA projects oil supply surplus in 2027
Global crude oil supply is set to fall by 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) to 102.4 million bpd this year amid trade disruptions due to the West Asia war, before rebounding by 8 million bpd next year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
IEA Sounds The Alarm: Oil Market Headed For Massive Glut By 2027 As Gulf Supply Returns After US-Iran Dea
Oil markets are facing the risk of a significant supply overhang by 2027 as global production rebounds faster than demand growth, according to a recent outlook from the International Energy Agency on Wednesday. The agency said global oil supply could rise sharply in the coming years as Gulf producers gradually restart shuttered oilfields following the Iran-related conflict resolution. The forecast suggests production could climb by around 8 mill…
The world oil market is preparing for a dramatic turnaround. After months of extreme scarcity caused by the conflict in the Middle East and a historic “supply shock”, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its June Oil Market Report that 2027 could bring an unprecedented supply surplus recent.The cause: world production will rebound strongly while demand will barely regain ground.A supply rebound of historical proportionsWhile 2026 will…
The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised the forecast for world oil demand in 2026 again downwards, anticipating a reduction of 1.1 million barrels per day compared to 2025 due to the conflict in the Middle East. In the monthly report on the oil market, the international organization reduced by another 700,000 barrels per day the forecasts for world oil consumption for this year, compared to those made in May, despite the agreement between …
One hundred and eleventh day of war in the Gulf this Wednesday, June 17, 2026.
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