US EditionIran Conflict Puts the Emerging-Markets Revival to the Test
Higher oil and LNG prices amid Iran conflict tighten financial conditions, threatening growth in import-reliant emerging markets while US LNG exporters may gain from soaring spot prices.
- In the first week of the conflict, Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG plant was forced to close, likely remaining offline for four weeks while LNG spot prices surged 50% and Brent crude passed $90.
- Airstrikes over the Gulf halted shipping and forced shutdowns, reducing LNG and oil flows while the United States, now the world's largest LNG exporter, cannot fully plug the Qatar gap.
- Energy Flux's model finds U.S. LNG firms could earn $4b in windfall profits, with Venture Global saying it 'stands ready' to supply and Cheniere's shares jumping 28%.
- Investors added US$12.6 billion to emerging-market stocks and bonds in the week through Wednesday, while JPMorgan Chase cut EM recommendations three times amid a stronger dollar and soaring oil prices.
- Portfolio managers note the current EM cycle appears more durable, with rotations into higher-quality credits proving resilient, while countries such as Mexico, Romania and Turkey remain preferred amid near-term risks.
14 Articles
14 Articles
Times of India
The Economic TimesGlobal Market | US-Israel-Iran conflict has put emerging-markets revival to test
Emerging market investments are facing significant losses. Stocks and currencies have dropped sharply. Bond yields have increased. However, many investment firms believe the long-term outlook for these markets remains strong. They cite diversification from US assets, attractive valuations, and solid economic growth as key drivers. Investors are using the dip to buy more securities.
Economic impact spreads as analysts wait on how US defines ‘victory’
John Wyn Evans, Head of Market Analysis at Rathbones, examines why markets are now pricing a longer, more disruptive Iran conflict and what that means for the UK. John Wyn Evans, Head of Market Analysis at Rathbones, said: “The challenge facing markets this morning is shaped as much by geopolitics as by economics, and a great deal turns on how the United States ultimately chooses to define ‘victory’ in the Gulf. The shifting and sometimes contra…
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