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George Mason U. Poll Shows Spanberger up 12 over Earle-Sears in Final Days of Virginia Governor's Race

A poll shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 7 points for governor while Republican Jason Miyares narrowly leads Democrat Jay Jones for attorney general.

  • On Oct. 21, CNU's final poll found Abigail Spanberger leading Winsome Earle-Sears 50% to 43%, with the attorney general race a near tie, 46%-to-45%.
  • The Jones text revelations have prompted fallout earlier this month, with 75% of likely voters hearing coverage and 56% of those aware less likely to support Jay Jones, Democratic attorney general candidate.
  • Demographic splits show Spanberger's lead is strongest among Democrats and women , with 29% of likely voters already having cast ballots.
  • Given a +/-4.1% margin of error, the poll was conducted by live interview on landlines and cell phones among 803 likely voters, showing both lieutenant governor and attorney general races tightened within this margin.
  • With the special session underway and one week until Election Day, the poll found Democrats hold an 8-point edge on the House of Delegates generic ballot, 51% to 43%.
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Bias Distribution

  • 56% of the sources are Center
56% Center

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MSNBC broke the news in United States on Monday, October 27, 2025.
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