Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Target Debt Ratio
3 Articles
3 Articles
Geopolitical risks and economic expectations: the role of trade linkages
I study the impact of domestic and foreign geopolitical risk (GPR) on economic expectations, and how trade linkages affect the transmission of foreign risks. Using monthly professional forecasts since 1995, I start by estimating the effect of GPR events on the distribution of expectations across 32 advanced and developing economies. I find that while changes in GPR do not shift median GDP forecasts, they increase their dispersion. I then assess …
The conflict in the Middle East adds greater uncertainty in a context characterized by the volatility of freight prices. The main aspects that operators must take into account to cope with this reality. Read more
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