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Kevin Warsh declines to hint at July rate decision in first international appearance as Fed chair

Kevin Warsh said the central bank will stay independent and gave no forecast, while markets price a 66.3% chance of steady rates in July.

  • On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh addressed a central bank conference in Sintra, Portugal, affirming the Federal Reserve's independence and commitment to lowering inflation despite President Donald Trump's calls for rate cuts.
  • Warsh declined to signal future policy steps, maintaining his opposition to "forward guidance" while emphasizing his goal of returning inflation to target levels.
  • Addressing political pressure for lower rates, Warsh underscored the Fed's autonomy, stating, "We're going to be an independent central bank at this moment and you're going to see no changes to that."
  • Markets currently price in a 66.3% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady at the July meeting, alongside a 66.9% chance of a quarter-point hike at the subsequent FOMC meeting in September.
  • Investors are monitoring ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP employment figures today for policy clues, while the 2-year Treasury note traded at around 4.17% following recent yield increases.
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The president of the Federal Reserve defends the “independence” of the institution after the Supreme ruling and affirms that the risks of inflation have been softened

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The Columbian broke the news in Vancouver, United States on Wednesday, July 1, 2026.
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