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Escalating tensions with India to impact Pakistan’s economic growth: Moody’s

  • On May 5, 2025, Moody's indicated that ongoing heightened conflicts between India and Pakistan could hinder Pakistan's economic expansion and disrupt efforts to strengthen its fiscal position.
  • The recent tensions follow a deadly April 22 attack in Indian Kashmir killing 26 tourists and subsequent diplomatic sanctions, including treaty suspensions and trade halts.
  • Moody's noted Pakistan's foreign-exchange reserves remain insufficient for upcoming external debt payments, risking impaired access to external financing amid worsening relations.
  • Moody's stated that India’s economic ties with Pakistan are very limited, accounting for less than 0.5% of its exports, and anticipates that ongoing tensions are unlikely to cause significant impacts on India's overall economic activity, despite the possibility of increased defense expenditures affecting fiscal consolidation.
  • Moody's warned the persistent India-Pakistan tensions will impede Islamabad's macroeconomic progress while periodic flare-ups likely won’t escalate into full military conflict.
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AUGAF broke the news in on Monday, May 5, 2025.
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