US EditionEconomic Outlook Quarterly: Fragmented trade, untapped potential at home
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Economic Outlook Quarterly: Fragmented trade, untapped potential at home
Written by Alessandro D’Alfonso, Martin Höflmayr and Giulio Sabbati. The EU’s trade-dependent economy faces uncertainty from global trade policy shifts, prompting calls to strengthen domestic demand. Economic growth forecasts for the years ahead have been downgraded, reflecting this uncertainty. Anticipatory trade to avoid US tariffs peaked in March 2025, as EU exports to the US rose by 59 % in the first quarter of 2025, but has subsided since. …
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