Dragon Capital Lowers Ukraine’s 2025–2026 Growth Forecast as Russia Ends Energy Truce

Dragon Capital Lowers Ukraine’s 2025–2026 Growth Forecast as Russia Ends Energy Truce

Dragon Capital revised Ukraine’s GDP forecast down to 1.7% in 2025 and 1% in 2026 after Russia resumed energy attacks, while the EU’s planned “reparation loan” could boost reserves to $50B.

Dragon Capital predicts Ukraine’s GDP growth will slow to 1.7% in 2025 and 1% in 2026 due to Russian attacks.

The most prominent investment firm in Ukraine has lowered its forecast from 2% to 1.7% for 2025 and from 1.5% to 1% for 2026, citing renewed Russian attacks on energy and a shift in the EU’s stance on frozen Russian assets. According to analysts, Ukraine’s real GDP growth slowed to 0.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, Dragon Capital maintained its previous estimate of 5% year-on-year gr…