US EditionDemocrats Hold Solid Lead in the Generic Ballot
Democrats lead Republicans 48% to 42% on the generic ballot, with independents favoring Democrats by 22 points, according to Emerson College Polling.
- Conducted January 17-19, 2026, the Emerson College Polling national survey found Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 48% to 42%, holding independents 50% to 28%.
- Independent voters now make up 45% of the electorate, with roughly 90% of partisan voters backing their party and two-thirds of independents viewing ICE as more harmful than helpful.
- Data were gathered via online panels using MMS text-to-web and PureSpectrum panels, sampling 1,000 likely voters with a credibility interval of ±3 percentage points and weighted by demographics and Aristotle voter file matching.
- Political analysts say the poll's edge could translate to House gains, as the generic congressional ballot this early predicts the House popular vote and would help Democrats contest a half-dozen Republican-held Senate seats.
- Margins of error mean poll averages can imply outcomes from an 11.0-point Democratic win to a 0.4-point Republican edge, while a New York Times–Siena University survey Thursday also showed a five-point Democratic lead.
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Oh No?: Independent Voters Back Congressional Democrats By Landslide 22-Point Margin, New Poll Shows
by Adam Pack at CDN - Republicans are bleeding support among independent voters ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to new polling. An Emerson College Polling national survey released Thursday found that congressional Democrats have a 22-point advantage over Republicans (50% to 28%) with independent voters. With roughly 90% of likely Republican and Democratic voters planning to support their party’s respective … Click to read the re…
NEW YORK TIMES POLL: Democrats Take Commanding Lead in Generic Ballot
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER NEW POLL FINDS DEMOCRATS UP BIG AHEAD OF MIDTERM ELECTIONS A new poll from The New York Times finds Democrats are up FIVE POINTS on the generic ballot. What’s worse for the future of the Republican majority? Independents would vote for a Democratic Member of Congress over a Republican by a 15% margin – 50% Democratic to 35% Republican. Latino voters prefer a Democratic representative by a 16% margin. At the same time, Tru…
Midterm polls have good news, great news, and bad news for Democrats. Wait, what?
House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Getty Images.If you’re a Silver Bulletin reader, you know that the party out of power (this time around, Democrats) tends to gain seats during the midterm elections. You probably also know that there’s a difference between a tsunami like 1994, a wave year like 2006, and a ripple like 2022. So, how is the 2026 race for Congress shaping up?It’s several months too soon to direct …
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- 59% of the sources lean Right
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