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El Niños Are Now Stronger than Any in the Past 1,000 Years, Study Finds
Researchers found El Niño events in the past 40 years were 36% stronger than preindustrial levels, based on 1,000 years of coral records.
On Thursday, August 27, 2026, researchers published a study in Science revealing El Niño events have intensified by 36% over the past 40 years, a shift linked to human-caused global warming.
Lead author Julia Cole of the University of Michigan used 1,000-year-old Galápagos coral records as a 'time machine' to reconstruct Pacific temperature history and identify intensification patterns.
The data shows a 16% jump in El Niño intensity over the past 40 years, marking an accelerating trend far beyond the relative stability observed during the 1,000-year pre-industrial period.
Stronger El Niño events amplify global weather extremes including floods and droughts. Climate scientist Kim Cobb of Brown University said the findings suggest 'something about this important source of climate extremes has already changed.'
While some experts like Michael Mann question whether coral records fully isolate climate signals, NOAA forecasts the current 2026 El Niño could reach historic levels, providing a real-world test of the study's findings.
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Lee Joo-young = Amidst successive strong El Niño events over the past few decades, along with global warming, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (E...) in the eastern Pacific over the past 40 years