US EditionUS Car Market Expected to Moderate in 2026
Cox Automotive forecasts a 2.4% drop in U.S. new-vehicle sales to 15.8 million in 2026 due to consumer income divides, inflation, and policy uncertainties.
- On Jan. 6, 2026, Cox Automotive projected U.S. new-vehicle sales at 15.8 million units, down 2.4% from 2025 in an Atlanta press release.
- Market forces identified by Cox Automotive show five forces labeled 'Fragmented Reality', including a jobless expansion that weakens confidence for big-ticket purchases.
- Key metrics show retail new-vehicle sales pace is expected to fall 1.5% year over year while fleet sales drop 6.1%, EV and plug-in hybrid lease penetration declines 3 points to 21%, and retail used-vehicle sales slip slightly.
- Cox Automotive says its data can indicate lower-income consumers will continue to feel strain, possibly accelerating trade-down behavior and affecting used-vehicle demand.
- The EV market will enter a new phase in 2026 without incentives, while policy shifts and Federal Reserve uncertainty create volatility that could limit sales growth and AI adopters may divert capital from traditional R&D.
64 Articles
64 Articles
New vehicle sales to decline moderately in 2026 as affordability issues weigh, forecast says
A new outlook from Cox Automotive projects that new vehicle sales are expected to slow slightly in 2026 from last year, which surpassed expectations for the industry.Cox Automotive forecasted that the U.S. will see 15.8 million new vehicles sold in 2026, which represents a 2.4% decline from sales levels a year ago. It also projects a 1.5% year-over-year decline in retail sales, while fleet sales are expected to fall 6.1% from 2025.Additionally, …
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Cox Automotive Forecasts 2026 New-Vehicle Sales at 15.8 Million, Down From 2025 as Market Fragmentation Slows Growth
Cox Automotive projects U.S. new-vehicle sales to reach 15.8 million units in 2026, down 2.4% from 2025.Most auto market metrics are expected to decline modestly in 2026 after outperforming forecasts in 2025.Market fragmentation, shifting consumer dynamics and policy uncertainty will…
Cox Automotive Projects 15.8 Million New-Vehicle Sales in 2026, Down 2.4% from 2025
Used vehicle values projected to increase 2% year over year by the end of 2026. Cox Automotive forecasts U.S. new-vehicle sales will reach 15.8 million units in 2026, a 2.4% decline from 2025 levels, according to the company’s annual industry outlook released Monday. The forecast follows a 2025 that exceeded expectations across most metrics. “The …
Cox Automotive forecasts slower but stable US auto market in 2026
On the Dash: U.S. new-vehicle sales are projected to fall 2.4% in 2026 after a stronger-than-expected 2025. Consumer demand will diverge, with higher-income buyers supporting sales while affordability pressures limit lower-income participation. Policy uncertainty, labor market weakness and shifting EV dynamics will continue to shape dealer strategies and market performance. Cox Automotive projects U.S. new-vehicle sales will reach 15.8 million …
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Bias Distribution
- 65% of the sources are Center
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