Corporate Insider Trading on Prediction Markets: United States v. Spagnuolo

Prediction Markets Have an Insider Trading Problem. Are They Still Worth the Gamble?

As prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket explode in popularity in the U.S., they are also facing growing allegations of insider trading.

Corporate Insider Trading on Prediction Markets: United States v. Spagnuolo

In April 2026, U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged for allegedly profiting over $400,000 on bets placed on an offshore cryptocurrency-based prediction platform using classified information related to a military operation targeting former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The prosecution of Van Dyke reflected the government’s position that prediction markets are subject to the Commodity Exchange Act’s (CEA)…