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Connolly increases lead in Áras race, poll suggests

Independent candidate Catherine Connolly leads with 44% to Fine Gael’s 25% as 21% of voters remain undecided ahead of Ireland’s presidential election.

  • On October 21, a Business Post-Red C poll shows Catherine Connolly on 44% and Heather Humphreys on 25% of first-preference votes.
  • The two rival candidates faced off in Tuesday's final TV debate on RTE's Prime Time, while both campaigned door-to-door across Cork, Clare, Cavan, Monaghan, and Westmeath.
  • Undecided voters still make up 21% of the electorate, Jim Gavin, Fianna Fail candidate , polls at 10%, and more than 57% of 18-34 year-olds back Connolly.
  • In theory, Connolly could be elected on the first count if the vote mirrors the poll, Michelle O'Neill campaigned in Monaghan, and Connolly said a win would send a strong message to Ireland's government.
  • Connolly lodged a formal complaint with Ireland's Electoral Commission over a malicious deepfake video on Tuesday, and both candidates urged people to vote on Friday.
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Latest poll points to commanding Connolly victory in Irish presidential race

The left wing independent TD has a 19 percentage point lead over Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, according to the Business Post/Red C poll.

·London, United Kingdom
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Bias Distribution

  • 60% of the sources lean Left
60% Left

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RTÉ broke the news in Ireland on Wednesday, October 22, 2025.
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