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Lula’s Lead over Bolsonaro Narrows Ahead of Brazil Vote, CNT/MDA Poll Shows

MDA surveyed 2,007 voters and found Lula at 47.8% in valid votes, with a likely runoff still projected.

  • On Saturday, a CNT/MDA poll showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 43.1% to 38% ahead of Sunday's first-round vote.
  • A September 15 poll previously showed Lula at 40.5% and Bolsonaro at 30.4%, demonstrating Lula's lead widened as the election approached.
  • When considering only projected valid votes, Lula reached 47.8% support against Bolsonaro's 42.1%, according to an MDA survey of 2,007 people with a 2.2 percentage point margin of error.
  • If no candidate exceeds more than 50% of valid votes on Sunday, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25, where Lula would receive 47.3% support.
  • Bolsonaro greeted supporters at a campaign rally in Santa Barbara do Oeste on October 3, one day before the general election, as the Liberal Party candidate seeks to narrow the gap.
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24 Articles

ReutersReuters
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Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil vote, CNT/MDA poll ...

·London, United Kingdom
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The president leads the first-round simulation; in the second, there is a draw near the margin of error limit

·São Paulo, Brazil
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The Mighty 790 KFGOThe Mighty 790 KFGO
+5 Reposted by 5 other sources
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Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil vote, CNT/MDA poll shows

SAO PAULO, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowed ahead ​of Sunday's first-round vote, a CNT/MDA ‌poll showed on Saturday, while also pointing to a tighter race in a likely runoff. ...

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In a possible 2nd turn, Lula appears with 47% against 43.1% of Flavius, which means a technical tie within the margin of error, of 2.2 percentage points

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The Mighty 790 KFGO broke the news on Saturday, October 3, 2026.
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