Climate Impact Lab Projects 451,000 Extra Heat Deaths From El Niño
Researchers say the toll will hit poorer countries hardest, with Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan among the most affected and 44% more extremely hot days projected.
- On Wednesday, September 23, 2026, the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab released a study projecting 451,000 excess heat-related deaths worldwide through February 2027 from the ongoing Super El Niño.
- Researchers describe this Super El Niño as a "postcard from the future," noting it mirrors conditions climate change will deliver in 20 years and will lead to 44% more extremely hot days than a typical year.
- Developing regions face the heaviest burden, with the Sahel projected to see 66,800 additional deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria, while Southeast Asia faces 19,400 deaths, India 15,800, and Brazil 13,300.
- Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone noted that "emergency actions can be taken now" to save tens of thousands of lives through heat-warning systems, cooling centers, and anticipatory financing.
- Elevated heat-related mortality may persist beyond February 2027, particularly in India and Pakistan during their summer months, requiring emergency planning to extend into mid-2027 to address prolonged seasonal heat.
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Algemeen Dagblad
Scientists Sound the Alarm: ‘Super El Niño’ Will Cause Nearly Half a Million Deaths by February 2027
The current 'Super El Niño' in the Pacific Ocean is expected to claim the lives of over 450,000 people worldwide through February of next year. Scientists are warning of an extreme heatwave that will hit the Southern Hemisphere particularly hard. The climate phenomenon already broke all heat records this week, while the real peak is not expected for months.
This year's super El Niño could lead to 451,000 deaths in the coming months as a result of extremely hot days, new research shows.
I Asked Scientists What Concerns Them Most About The 2026 'Godzilla' El Niño
A ‘Godzilla’ El Niño is brewing – and scientists are concerned about how the weather phenomenon is set to impact the UK and wider world.The phenomenon develops every few years, and involves the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean becoming hotter than normal. But this year temperatures are ramping up to never-seen-before extremes. An El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the long-term …
Analysis indicates that an unusually severe El Niño could cause over 451,000 heat-related deaths globally by February 2027, with Nigeria at the highest risk of being affected.
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