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China's Factory Activity Nears Stagnation as Iran War Drives Up Cost

Rising input costs from higher energy prices kept factory margins under pressure, while new export orders reached a two-year high, the NBS said.

  • A Reuters poll of 27 economists forecasts China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index will drop to 50.1 from 50.4 in March, as rising cost pressures from the Middle East conflict test Beijing's reliance on manufacturing growth.
  • Conflict in the Middle East has created inflationary pressure that threatens expansion, with ANZ analysts warning this cost-driven inflation is 'not friendly to the economy' because it lacks support from stronger consumer demand.
  • According to the National Bureau of Statistics , major industrial firms saw profits rise 15.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, driven by rapid expansion in high-tech manufacturing and equipment sectors.
  • Gross domestic product grew 5% in the first three months of 2026, hitting the upper range of Beijing's annual target, while the central bank kept benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for the 11th consecutive month.
  • Credit ratings agency Moody's revised China's outlook to 'stable' from 'negative' on Monday, citing resilient fiscal strength, though Beijing officials warned earlier this week that the economy faces persistent difficulties despite a strong start to 2026.
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China’s factory activity expands for a second month despite shocks from the Iran war

Surveys show China's factory activity expanded for a second month in April. The National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday that the official manufacturing purchasing managers index slipped slightly to 50.3 from 50.4 in March on a scale of 0 to 100 where a reading above 50 indicates expansion.

·United States
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CNBC broke the news in United States on Wednesday, April 15, 2026.
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