China factory prices return to growth after 3 years, beating expectations on surging oil prices
Imported inflation and higher fuel costs helped end a 41-month producer-price decline, while consumer inflation rose 1% and missed forecasts, the NBS said.
- China's producer prices rose 0.5% year-on-year in March, the first gain since September 2022, according to data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics, ending a prolonged deflationary streak.
- The Iran war, which began Feb 28, has upended global energy markets, pushing Brent June crude to $96.7 a barrel on Friday—a 33% rally since the conflict began and directly raising China's domestic fuel costs.
- Consumer inflation moderated to 1% in March, missing economist forecasts; meanwhile, the planning agency raised retail gasoline and diesel prices by 420 yuan and 400 yuan per metric ton on Tuesday.
- Economists warned that input-cost shocks could spark "bad inflation", squeezing manufacturers' thin margins; The Wall Street banks cut GDP growth forecasts to 4.7% assuming $110 oil, or 4.2% if prices exceed $150.
- Yield on China's 10-year government bonds held steady at 1.814% Friday, signaling investor resilience; Morgan Stanley chief China economist Robin Xing estimates PPI will rise 1.2% and CPI 0.8% this year.
21 Articles
21 Articles
Higher producer prices ease China deflation fears
China reported higher producer prices for the first time since 2022, alleviating fears of persistent deflation in the world’s second-biggest economy, but driving concerns of a global wave of inflation resulting from the Iran war. Higher energy prices resulting from the conflict are beginning to reach Chinese consumers, ING’s China chief economist noted; the US is expected to report its own surge in inflation later today. Markets have largely upp…
Global Market: China’s factory-gate prices turn positive after three years as cost pressures mount
China's factory prices are rising again after three years. This marks a shift from falling prices. Higher global commodity costs, driven by geopolitical tensions, are pushing up costs for Chinese producers. Consumer prices are rising slower, showing limited cost pass-through. This presents a complex challenge for policymakers balancing growth and inflation risks.
After 41 months, producer prices in China are rising again for the first time, while consumer prices remain below analyst expectations.
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