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China factory prices return to growth after 3 years, beating expectations on surging oil prices

Imported inflation and higher fuel costs helped end a 41-month producer-price decline, while consumer inflation rose 1% and missed forecasts, the NBS said.

  • China's producer prices rose 0.5% year-on-year in March, the first gain since September 2022, according to data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics, ending a prolonged deflationary streak.
  • The Iran war, which began Feb 28, has upended global energy markets, pushing Brent June crude to $96.7 a barrel on Friday—a 33% rally since the conflict began and directly raising China's domestic fuel costs.
  • Consumer inflation moderated to 1% in March, missing economist forecasts; meanwhile, the planning agency raised retail gasoline and diesel prices by 420 yuan and 400 yuan per metric ton on Tuesday.
  • Economists warned that input-cost shocks could spark "bad inflation", squeezing manufacturers' thin margins; The Wall Street banks cut GDP growth forecasts to 4.7% assuming $110 oil, or 4.2% if prices exceed $150.
  • Yield on China's 10-year government bonds held steady at 1.814% Friday, signaling investor resilience; Morgan Stanley chief China economist Robin Xing estimates PPI will rise 1.2% and CPI 0.8% this year.
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After 41 months, producer prices in China are rising again for the first time, while consumer prices remain below analyst expectations.

·Düsseldorf, Germany
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Caixin Global broke the news in on Thursday, April 9, 2026.
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