US Forecaster Says El Nino Has 82% Chance of Developing by July
Forecasters gave El Niño an 82% chance of forming by July and a 96% chance of lasting through winter, with a growing risk of a very strong event.
- The National Weather Service announced on Thursday an 82 percent chance of El Niño emerging between May and July, with a 96 percent probability it will persist through winter 2026-27.
- Reflecting a sharp increase from March estimates, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization projected only about 40 percent odds of El Niño returning this summer, making the latest forecast a significant upward revision.
- Model guidance indicates a 37 percent chance of a "very strong El Niño" this winter, with 30 percent for "strong" and 22 percent for "moderate" strength, according to forecasters.
- Typically, an El Niño event brings warm, dry winter weather to the northern half of the country, while Southern states experience wetter, colder conditions during the season.
- While intensity remains unclear, forecasters warn El Niño could drive up global temperatures and reshape hurricane patterns, with quieter Atlantic seasons but stronger Pacific tropical storms likely.
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The climate pattern of El Niño could reappear in the coming months and intensify towards the end of the year, according to the most recent forecast released on Thursday by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA).
Chances of El Niño, Super El Nino Growing
California faces increasing odds of experiencing El Niño and even a rare super El Niño later this year. On Thursday, the National Weather Service issued an updated outlook showing an 82 percent chance that El Niño conditions will shape weather patterns from May through July. Forecasters also raised the probability of the climate pattern continuing through winter to 96 percent, when El Niño typically reaches peak intensity and can bring colder te…
This is indicated by a recent update of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which estimates in two out of three the probabilities that El...
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Bias Distribution
- 57% of the sources are Center
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