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UC Riverside Study Reveals Earth's Climate System Could Overcorrect, Trigger Ice Age

UC Riverside researchers found a carbon cycle feedback where ocean carbon burial overcorrects warming, potentially causing temperature drops exceeding 6°C, enough to trigger an ice age.

  • New modeling shows University of California, Riverside researchers identified a missing carbon cycle element that could trigger an ice age, the study published in Science on September 25, 2025 finds.
  • Rain and rock weathering capture atmospheric CO2 as rain dissolves silicate rocks like granite, combining carbon with dissolved calcium to form seashells and limestone that lock carbon away.
  • Simulations reveal overcooling exceeding 6°C and persistent cooling as CO2 drops, strongest at intermediate oxygenation states, with Andy Ridgwell saying, `As the planet gets hotter, rocks weather faster and take up more CO₂, cooling the planet back down again.`
  • Researchers warn human CO2 emissions will cause short-term warming, but the mechanism could bring forward the next ice age; Andy Ridgwell, UCR geologist, urges to `limit ongoing warming`.
  • The mechanism also ties to ancient events, as the study tested 10,000 billion tons released over 10,000 years and links instability to Precambrian oxygenation transitions, opening new research directions.
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Climate consensus skeptics like to point out that just a few decades ago, some scientists considered the arrival of a new ice age to be a greater threat.

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Sciworthy broke the news in on Thursday, September 4, 2025.
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