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Burnham has no scope to increase borrowing, think tank warns
NIESR said inflation will stay higher for longer and warned the government has no room for extra borrowing to fund new pledges.
On Wednesday, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research cautioned Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey that there is "no capacity to borrow any more" to fund new policy commitments.
Burnham's recent announcement of £2bn in giveaways—including a £2 bus fare cap, VAT cuts on energy bills, and reduced business rates for pubs—prompted NIESR analysts to question how these commitments would be funded.
NIESR projects inflation will rise to 3.8% next year, potentially forcing the Bank of England to hike interest rates again to return to the government's 2% target, complicating fiscal planning.
Deputy director Stephen Millard advised funding measures through tax reform or spending cuts, noting "there's clearly no scope for increasing borrowing" despite Burnham's pledge to protect working people from tax increases.
The Treasury said it will stick to fiscal rules while investing in public services, though NIESR warns of a 4% real spending squeeze by decade's end equating to approximately £24bn in 2023 prices.