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Bank of England keeps rates on hold at 3.75% as Iran war shakes outlook

The committee said war-driven energy shocks could force higher borrowing costs and raise the risk of recession if prices stay elevated.

  • On Thursday, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to leave the benchmark rate at 3.75%, as the conflict in Iran creates significant economic uncertainty for the central bank's outlook.
  • Because energy prices remain volatile due to the conflict in Iran, the BOE scrapped its central inflation projection and instead outlined three potential scenarios based on different energy price paths.
  • Chief Economist Huw Pill dissented, while Deputy Governors Dave Ramsden and Clare Lombardelli, Megan Greene, and Catherine Mann all signaled that financial conditions may need tightening soon.
  • Governor Andrew Bailey said holding rates was a "reasonable place" to be given softness in the UK economy, though the panel "stands ready to act" if inflation risks increase.
  • The BOE warned that prospects for global energy prices are "highly uncertain," with the most downbeat scenario showing inflation hitting 6.2% in 2027, above the 2% target.
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Bank signals interest rates could rise as Iran war to push up cost of living

The new outlook comes as interest rates were held at 3.75% on Thursday.

·Northern Ireland, United Kingdom
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caithness-business.co.uk broke the news on Thursday, April 30, 2026.
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