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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Texas US Senate Republican primary runoff
On Tuesday, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn faces Attorney General Ken Paxton in a Republican primary runoff after neither secured over 50% in the March primary, with Paxton backed by President Donald Trump's endorsement from May 19.
Cornyn's criticism of Trump during the president's 2024 campaign prompted Trump to seek his removal, though Trump tempered his Paxton endorsement compared to his challenges against Republican incumbents in Indiana, Louisiana and Kentucky.
Paxton dominated Trump's 80%-plus counties with 45% to Cornyn's 40%, yet Cornyn prevailed in the 12 counties Democrat Kamala Harris carried in 2024, capturing 44% to Paxton's 40% in areas representing 25% of the primary vote.
Wesley Hunt's 13.5% of March primary voters now hold sway as the runoff winner advances to face Democrat James Talarico, a centrist Presbyterian state lawmaker, in November's general election.
Democrats increasingly view the Texas Senate race as an upset opportunity amid historical midterm patterns favoring opposition parties, though only two Texas senators have lost primaries in 100 years, making Cornyn's predicament exceptionally rare.