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Canada's pipeline ambitions hinge on uncertain output expansion
Pipeline firms say the projects could add 2.25 million barrels per day, but producers are holding back on new oil sands investment.
Pipeline firms are proposing projects to boost Canada's export capacity by 45% by 2035, yet major oil sands producers remain reluctant to accelerate production increases due to ongoing climate policy uncertainty.
While executives feel optimistic about Carney's pledges to roll back environmental rules, many negotiated policy changes—including carbon pricing and permitting timelines—have not yet been drafted into final legislation.
Building sufficient production to utilize these pipes would require more than $100 billion in capital investment, according to Imperial Oil CEO John Whelan, as producers prioritize shareholder returns over expansion.
Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources confirmed this month they are not yet willing to accelerate production, while Enbridge said in July it is postponing plans for a second Mainline expansion.
Canada ships 90% of its oil to the United States, and Carney aims to grow exports to help the national economy withstand tariff threats amid global trade disruptions from the Iran war.