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Study: AI Models Used Nuclear Weapons 95% of Time in War Simulations

  • Last week, Kenneth Payne, professor of strategy at King's College London, ran simulations where OpenAI's GPT-5.2, Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4, and Google's Gemini 3 Flash deployed tactical nukes in 95% of games.
  • Tong Zhao, a Princeton visiting scholar, warned AI may not perceive human stakes and compressed decision timelines could push military planners to rely on AI more in crises.
  • In the simulations, unintended escalations occurred in 86% of conflicts, opposing AIs de‑escalated only 18% of the time, and the eight de‑escalatory options went entirely unused.
  • Experts cautioned that the results underscore nuclear-risk as militaries experiment with AI, and while officials stress no one is handing launch authority to machines now, they warn tight timelines could make commanders lean on AI.
  • Payne concluded that the maturing technology heightens the need for more modeling as AI systems in military roles already affect deterrence and decision timelines.
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El PeriódicoEl Periódico
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Center

An investigation warns that the chatbots of technology companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic and Google advocate the use of nuclear weapons in 95% of simulations of international war scenarios

·Barcelona, Spain
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Lean Left

It is unlikely that models will allow such important decisions to be taken.

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manhattan.institute broke the news in on Thursday, July 25, 2024.
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