Study Says Climate Change Could Increase Large Hail by 38% to 47% by 2100
Researchers say warmer air will favor larger hailstones, with storms producing stones bigger than 1.2 inches projected to rise 38% to 47% by 2100.
- A study published Wednesday in Nature projects large hail will increase between 38% and 47% by 2100, based on computer simulations of more than 14,000 real-world hailstorms from 2014 to 2021.
- Warmer air containing 7% more water vapor per degree Celsius fuels stronger updrafts, allowing hailstones to grow larger, particularly at higher latitudes where temperature increases are sharpest, meteorologist Shiyi Zhang of Peking University explains.
- Meteorologist Qinghong Zhang called this "the first study to make a quantitative estimate of hail hazard events worldwide," with hail costing the U.S. about $10 billion annually and around $80 billion globally.
- Regional impacts vary sharply: Argentina, Europe, Canada and the U.S. Northern Plains will likely see the biggest increase in larger hail, while tropical regions may see damage ease, with validation against recorded storms strengthening the model's credibility.
- Climate scientist Andreas Prein warns large hail around 2 inches can damage vehicles, roofs and solar panels, yet future losses hinge heavily on building practices and infrastructure resilience—concerns highlighted by an April 28 Springfield hailstorm that smashed cars with baseball-sized ice.
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21 Articles
Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is expected to modify severe convective storms and their associated hazards, including hailstorms, a primary driver of weather-related economic losses1–4. Despite some research on the response of hailstorms to ACC, most studies have focused on regional-scale changes2–9, whereas global-scale assessments of hailstone size remain scarce. Here we show a 36.5–42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potenti…
Associated Press News
A warmer world creates bigger and more damaging hailstones, study says
A new study says the size and damage from hailstones will increase in a warming world. Computer simulations of the future show that the amount of hail bigger than a large marble will increase between 38% and 47% globally by 2100 with the amount of smaller hailstones dropping a bit.
A warmer world will probably make hail bigger and wreak more havoc, according to a new study.
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