96 percent chance Democrats take House, 78 percent for Senate: Harvard model
Prediction markets saw Democrats with a 78% chance of winning the Senate and 95% odds of taking the House, with nearly $1.9 billion wagered.
- On Tuesday, nearly $1.9 billion had been wagered on U.S. midterm elections across Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets as of Monday evening, marking record betting levels for election contracts.
- Prediction markets have shifted into the mainstream, with Kalshi valued at $40 billion in its latest fundraising round last month and Polymarket at $21 billion in August, reflecting surging institutional backing.
- Financial technology worker Noah Poser built quantitative models to track dozens of wagers, while Florida State University student Yadin Eldar bets on races he considers "extremely underpriced" for potential 50-55% profits.
- Legal challenges from a bipartisan coalition of state attorneys general in New York and Utah have alleged the platforms operate as illegal gambling, while Polymarket recently investigated dozens of midterm trades for potential insider manipulation.
- Industry leaders prioritize "long-term development and credibility" over election outcomes, though critics contend the platforms function as "gambling, just disguised as predictions," raising questions about sustained regulatory acceptance.
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296 Articles
Now that Democrats can do something, will they?
In a repudiation of President Donald Trump’s fascist agenda, Democrats trounced Republicans in midterm races across the country Tuesday night. From maintaining party strongholds such as Illinois to gaining ground up and down the ballot in the unlikeliest of places (Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and Nevada), it is clear that the balance of power […] The post Now that Democrats can do something, will they? appeared first on Chicago Reader.
How to win big: betting on the US midterms
Prediction market betting has grown in popularity, with more people putting their picks, and cash, on major races in the 2026 U.S. midterm election. CGTN's Martin Markovitz spoke with one bettor about his choices and how he makes them.#cgtnnews
Democrats romped in state elections. What will they do with their newfound power?
The blue wave that swept across Tuesday’s midterm election will deliver Democrats new power over state government, giving them the opportunity to advance long-sought policy changes. Democrats flipped hundreds of seats, won control of several GOP-held chambers, broke veto-proof supermajorities and won a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010. Democratic lawmakers from […]
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