After Trump Rout, Europe Sees Far-Right Setbacks but Le Pen Stays Strong
Far-right parties are losing ground in several countries as voters punish incumbents, while Le Pen remains ahead in France’s presidential contest, pollsters said.
- With Election Day approaching, final New York Times/Siena polls released Sunday show Democrats ahead in seven battleground states that will determine Senate control, though political analyst Juan Sepulveda cautioned they are snapshots, not predictions.
- A yawning gap in partisan enthusiasm complicates polling efforts, as Democrats report being far more motivated to vote than Republicans, making it difficult for pollsters to identify which potential voters will actually cast ballots.
- Presidential polls in past cycles underestimated Republican support by around 3 points in 2016 and 2024, and close to 5 points in 2020; however, Times/Siena polls proved accurate in 2018 and 2022.
- Democrats lead in traditionally Republican states like Kansas and Texas, yet their path to a Senate majority requires winning reliably red seats; if polling misses match 2016 or 2020 levels, current leads may prove insufficient.
- As polling methods evolve, analysts increasingly supplement surveys with focus groups to capture voter sentiment. Sarah Longwell, publisher of Bulwark, uses this methodology to analyze disaffected voters, offering insights traditional quantitative polling may miss.
354 Articles
354 Articles
Trump's failure is representative of many actors in the right-wing camp, from Geert Wilders to Viktor Orbán. The right-wings can't. Often they fail miserably. For left-wings this may be a consolation, but in fact it is a problem for democracy.
Herald Bulletin
The Herald JournalTrump's midterm rout adds to the populist right's losses. France’s Le Pen could still win
From Hungary to Brazil, voters have ousted nationalist leaders or blocked far-right challengers. Now the Democrats’ capture of both chambers of Congress has strengthened hopes among the far-right’s opponents that a decade of populist advance is beginning to reverse. Setbacks…
In France, experts doubt leftwing momentum could thwart Le Pen’s presidential lead
PARIS (CN) — Behind the counter of a tailor shop near Gare de Lyon on Saturday morning, Buran, who asked to be identified only by his first name, considered whether Democrats’ dominance in the U.S. midterms could influence France’s 2027 presidential election. “Of course it interests us; All of the movements that happen in the U.S. affect the whole world, especially Europe,” he said. “There were always movements to the left here … But all of the …
The Toronto Star
After Trump’s midterm rout, Europe sees cracks in populist right. It may not stop France’s Le Pen
PARIS (AP) — A decade ago, U.S. President Donald Trump ’s victory sent a populist shock wave across the West. Now, Europe is asking whether the midterm rout of his Republican Party will send one back.
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