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96 percent chance Democrats take House, 78 percent for Senate: Harvard model

Summary by Ground News
Recently updated election models from Harvard University forecast a strong chance of Democrats winning a majority of seats in the House and the Senate in the midterm elections.

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A Harvard University election prediction model forecasted a 96% probability of the Democratic Party winning the House and a 78% probability of winning the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. With projected seats of 242 in the House and 53 in the Senate, the analysis indicated a high likelihood that the Democratic Party will regain the majority in both chambers. The U.S. political news outlet The Hill reported on the 3rd (local time)

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On November 3 (local time), the day of the U.S. midterm elections, Harvard University projected a 96% probability of the Democratic Party regaining the majority in the House and 78% in the Senate. Harvard predicted that the Democrats would secure up to 242 seats in the House. Regarding the likelihood of a Republican victory in the House, the university stated that it is "equivalent to the probability of rolling a 20 on a 20-sided die," and asses…

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Half-term elections in the U.S. could change Congressional force report. Harvard's forecast indicates 242 mandates for Democrats in the House of Representatives and 53 in the Senate.

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In its latest estimate of the US midterm elections, the Decision Desk HQ election center gave the Democrats an 84% chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives and a 64% chance of winning a majority in the Senate.

·Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of)
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(Washington = Yonhap News) Correspondent Baek Na-ri = Harvard University in the United States projected the probability of the Democratic Party winning the House of Representatives and the Senate at 96% and 78%, respectively, in this midterm election.

·Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
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The Hill broke the news in Washington, United States on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
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