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Prop 40 Would Create a First-in-the World-Tax on Billionaires
On the November 3 ballot, Proposition 40 asks California voters to impose a 5% tax on state billionaires retroactive to January 1, with backers claiming it would generate $100 billion for healthcare and education.
California is home to 250 billionaires collectively worth upwards of $2 trillion, yet the state historically approves only one in three citizen initiatives despite leaning left politically and needing healthcare funds.
UC Berkeley economics professor Emmanuel Saez argues "it's just absurd to think that Silicon Valley is going to come to a standstill" from the tax, though skeptics estimate revenue closer to $40 billion and warn of capital flight.
Google co-founder Sergey Brin spent more than $100 million to defeat Proposition 40 and support countermeasures, while Governor Gavin Newsom also opposes the tax, advocating for a federal wealth tax instead.
A September Public Policy Institute of California poll shows Proposition 40 leading 52% to 46%, yet John Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College, warns that ballot measures often lose support by Election Day.