2026’s elections could test how heavy trading on prediction markets affects races and results
Election officials are weighing new restrictions as platforms say the contracts track outcomes and 60% forecasts have matched results nearly 60% of the time.
- Election-Season trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket is surging, prompting states to fight the platforms, which they characterize as unlicensed casinos amid concerns about high-stakes odds affecting American democracy.
- Administrators fear pervasive financial incentives might damage confidence in elections if Americans believe traders are influencing outcomes, leading half the states to maintain statutes that broadly ban betting on elections.
- On Aug. 31, Kalshi issued a three-year suspension to Republican North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for trading on her own race, reflecting insider trading concerns.
- Maryland State Board administrator Jared DeMarinis and Delaware County elections director Jim Allen are seeking to prohibit election workers from betting on races as courts weigh litigation regarding state regulatory authority.
- Kalshi and Polymarket officials contend their activities constitute hedging rather than gambling, citing research showing markets correlate strongly to outcomes, with events given a 60% chance occurring nearly 60% of the time.
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Ohio Capital Journal
How the US House could overturn the midterm election results
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump tried to maintain power following his loss in the 2020 election by exerting pressure on state election officials to, in some cases, “find” the votes. Loyalist Republicans in Congress then attempted to deny Joe Biden the Oval Office when lawmakers gathered to certify the Electoral College, bringing to light loopholes and deficiencies in the […]
2026's elections could test how skyrocketing trading on prediction markets affects races and results
Officials' fears revolve around the fear that pervasive financial incentives will further damage confidence in elections and democracy if Americans think they're influencing the outcome.
Midterm elections shaping up as big business for gamblers in the rough and rowdy world of prediction markets
“This is a troubling trend that election administrators across the nation must deal with,” said Jared DeMarinis of the Maryland State Board of Elections.
Associated Press News
2026's elections could test how heavy trading on prediction markets affects races and results
Election-season trading on prediction markets is skyrocketing as states fight to outlaw the platforms as unlicensed casinos.
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