WTO Raises Merchandise Trade Growth Forecast to 3.9% as AI Boom Offsets Hit From Middle East – WTOP News
AI-related goods drove 47% of first-half merchandise trade growth as the WTO said supply chains adapted to Middle East disruptions.
- The World Trade Organization increased its 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%, more than doubling the initial 1.9% prediction as booming AI-related investments offset economic hits from Middle East conflict.
- Demand for AI-enabling goods accounted for 47% of merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, with trade in these products rising 67% year-on-year, providing powerful momentum to global commerce.
- Conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipping through the Persian Gulf since the Israeli war against Iran began, causing crude oil exports to drop by nearly a quarter in the first half of the year.
- Global supply chains successfully adapted to energy and fertilizer market disruptions, with the Geneva-based trade body noting this resilience limited LNG shipment declines to about 6% despite regional challenges.
- The trade body expects global GDP to grow 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027, while merchandise trade growth of 4.1% is anticipated for next year, up from the 2.9% forecast made earlier this year.
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35 Articles
The economists of the World Trade Organization (WTO) now expect a growth of 3.9 per cent in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2026, compared with 1.9 per cent anticipated in March. By 2027, they expect a growth of 4.1 per cent, well above the 2.6% predicted in March. As for world GDP, it is expected to increase by 2.6 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent the next. "These figures show the resilience of trade," said WTO Director-General Ngoz…
Experts from the World Trade Organization (WTO) have doubled expectations for increased global trade during the current year, against the backdrop of massive investment in artificial intelligence. 3.9 per cent of world trade growth is expected in 2026, twice as high as the previous 1.9 per cent, TASS writes with reference to the organization ' s report. The paper notes that the sharp increase in import demand is due to the investment boom i…
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2026 is the year of many crises and conflicts. With the Strait of Hormus, one of the lifelines of world trade was at times dense. But in the end, according to the WTO, the trade balance looks surprisingly good.
WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle East – WTOP News
GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization is sharply increasing its forecast for merchandise trade growth worldwide this year, more than doubling its prediction to 3.9% as booming AI investments offset a hit from war in the Middle East. The Geneva-based trade body says global trade chugged along at a hearty pace, as supply chains...
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