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U.S. Wildfire Damage Is on Pace to Triple by Mid‑century, but There Are Affordable Ways to Lower the Risk
Researchers say 449,000 U.S. structures could be lost to wildfire between 2026 and 2060 without stronger risk reduction.
A new study published Tuesday in Nature Communications by University of Colorado Boulder researchers found that U.S. structural losses from wildfires could nearly triple by 2060 under current development patterns.
Climate change and sprawling development into fire-prone terrain drive the rising risk, lengthening fire seasons and increasing building exposure to ignition sources, according to researchers.
Researchers estimate between 133,200 and 449,100 structures could be damaged or destroyed nationwide between 2024 and 2060, with greatest dangers overlapping areas of significant socioeconomic hardship.
Sharp increases are projected in the Central and Eastern United States, where 84.1% of census tracts in the Central region face rising structural risk, leaving communities less prepared for potential fires.
Virginia Iglesias, director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado Boulder, stated projected losses are not inevitable, emphasizing that wildfire-resilient construction and defensible space can substantially lower risk.