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Why Two Republicans Advancing in the Race for Governor Is a Long Shot
Simulations show a 12% chance two Republicans could be top vote-getters in California's June primary, risking a Republican-only November gubernatorial race and challenging Democrats.
- On Feb 15, 2026, Political Data Inc. released modeling by Paul Mitchell showing about a 12% chance two Republicans could advance from California statewide top-two primary.
- With the crowded Democratic field and California's 'top two' primary, Mitchell said `All these candidates that are running have their own political bases and I don't think in the next week and a half are going to end up rallying around one of these candidates`.
- Using 1,000 simulations, Mitchell's model shows roughly a 12% chance of two Republicans advancing, based on polling and campaign spending data.
- Mitchell warned that the Democratic Party should be concerned about two Republicans making the runoff because it could politically decimate them in November, and the California Democratic Party convention this upcoming weekend could endorse one candidate to prevent this.
- If two Republicans appear positioned to advance, public employee unions and allied independent-expenditure committees would consolidate behind a Democrat and spend what is necessary to prevent this outcome, as Adam Schiff and allied committees spent millions in 2024 to shape the runoff.
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11 Articles
11 Articles
LA Daily News+7 Reposted by 7 other sources
Why two Republicans advancing in the race for governor is a long shot
The odds of two Republicans advancing are not zero. But in California politics, institutions rarely leave outcomes to chance. Consider how often a coin lands on its edge.
·Los Angeles, United States
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Will California voters have to decide between two Republicans for governor?
With so many Democratic candidates in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, there's a slight chance California voters will end up choosing between two Republicans in the general election for governor.
·Sacramento, United States
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Election 2026: California Republicans Have a Chance
Republicans have not held the governor’s mansion in California since 2010. During the Tea Party Wave election, Republicans swept into power nationwide, even in blue […] Source The post Election 2026: California Republicans Have a Chance appeared first on Conservative Angle | Conservative Angle - Conservative News Clearing House
Coverage Details
Total News Sources11
Leaning Left0Leaning Right2Center8Last UpdatedBias Distribution80% Center
Bias Distribution
- 80% of the sources are Center
80% Center
C 80%
R 20%
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