Scientists Warn Potential 'Super' El Nino Could Trigger Record Global Heat
Forecasters say the event could become a super El Nino, with a one-in-three chance of reaching 2 C above average and driving record global heat.
- The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an 80% chance of El Nino developing by July, as sea temperatures in key Pacific zones are rising with abnormally warm water massing beneath the surface.
- El Ninos build strength as the ocean and atmosphere increasingly "couple" over the summer months, shifting air pressure, cloud patterns and winds. A hallmark of the strongest events is the weakening of trade winds.
- Several weather services predict Pacific sea temperatures could surge 2.5C or more above average later this year, with Australia forecasting a potential 2.8C increase. NOAA notes a one-in-three chance this episode hits 2C, crossing into "super El Nino" territory.
- Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said this event could be the strongest in decades, potentially leading to a new record level of global warmth in 2027. Ocean heat releases slowly.
- Climate change has shifted the baseline so dramatically that "history is a poorer guide for seasonal predictions," climatologist Felicity Gamble at The Bureau of Meteorology told AFP. Impacts are riding on top of climate change, potentially exceeding past events.
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According to the American Ocean and Atmospheric Observing Agency (NOAA), there is about 80% chance that an El Niño episode will develop by July.
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FORECASTERS say a potentially “super” El Niño is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific — but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.The fast-warming tropical Pacific is pointing to a major event, but a crucial weakening of trade winds — capable of turbocharging or throttling the phenomenon — has yet to materialize.Scientists say these interactions are notoriously complex and…
Something coming: Here's what scientists know about a potential 'super' El Nino
Forecasters say a potentially “super” El Nino is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific — but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts. The fast-warming tropical Pacific is pointing to a major event but a crucial weakening of trade winds — capable of turbocharging or throttling the phenomenon — has yet to materialise. Scientists say these interactions are notoriously complex an…
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Something coming: What scientists know about a potential 'super' El Nino
Forecasters say a potentially "super" El Nino is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific -- but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle
Scientists warn potential 'super' El Nino could trigger record global heat
PARIS: Forecasters say a potentially "super" El Nino is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific – but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.
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