US EditionWar Revives Stagflation Dangers for Global Economy
IMF officials warn of near-recession risks as higher oil prices and weak surveys point to slower growth and firmer inflation across major economies.
- Global markets face renewed stagflation risks this week as the Middle East conflict drives energy prices higher, with upcoming business surveys and inflation data set to reveal the economic toll.
- On Tuesday, economists expect US retail sales data to signal tepid demand as high fuel costs force consumers to cut spending on non-essentials while gasoline prices remain around $4 a gallon.
- Wednesday's inflation reading is predicted to quicken to 3.1% from 3% in February, while analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast Turkey's central bank will hold its main rate at 37%.
- Kevin Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking committee on Tuesday for a Federal Reserve confirmation hearing, where investors will watch for his approach to balancing growth with inflation concerns.
- IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that policymakers must operate under "high and permanent uncertainty," noting the war's economic impact is already baked into 2026 global growth forecasts.
11 Articles
11 Articles
Because of the Iran war, many countries are threatening to slip into stagflation. Star economist El-Erian explains what this means for investors – and what tips he has for themCapital: Mr El-Erian, does the Iran war lead us back to stagflation, i.e. to a stagnating economy linked to high inflation?MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: Stagflation is a quite realistic risk scenario, even if its extent varies considerably depending on the region. The main reason for …
Iran War revives stagflation fears as global growth forecasts crumble - Dailynewsegypt
Seven weeks into the Iran conflict, the economic damage is beginning to show up in the data — and the picture is darkening. As preliminary business surveys roll in from economies stretching from Australia to the United States, analysts and policymakers alike are asking the same unsettling question: how close is the world to stagflation?
Seven weeks of conflict in the Middle East have been enough to resurrect a ghost that the markets believed buried: the global economy stagflation. The next data from business surveys, which will be published at the end of April 2026, will reflect for the first time the accumulated impact of the war. And expectations are not good. Brent oil accumulates a 23% rise since the beginning of the hostilities. European natural gas has rebounded by 18%. M…
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