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Experts cast doubt on Venezuela’s longtime claim of 300 billion barrels of reserve oil

Experts say Venezuela’s proven reserves are likely far below the official figure, and the U.S. oil deal may cover only a fraction of the barrels claimed.

  • OPEC's 2026 report places Venezuela's proven oil reserves at 303.7 billion barrels, yet experts warn the figure is inherently problematic and likely inflated based on exaggerated data from the government.
  • Then-President Hugo Chávez initiated the reserve tally in the mid-2000s amid rising oil prices; PDVSA reported a stunning 82 billion barrel jump in 2011, citing recovery rate revisions without detailed explanation.
  • Experts estimate actual recovery rates at about 10% overall, far lower than government claims. Rice University oil expert Francisco Monaldi stated the figures are "inflated by a factor of nearly three."
  • President Donald Trump announced a deal claiming the U.S. would control 65 billion barrels of reserves, though former Venezuela energy official Evanan Romero called the proposal "a funny number, an absolute lie."
  • Investors remain hesitant due to lack of transparency surrounding reserve calculations. Monaldi emphasized that static figures create suspicion: "Any country that reports a reserve figure that never changes over time—that smells extremely fishy.
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Venezuela claims to have 300 billion barrels of oil in the ground. But experts say that's a stretch

One figure sets Venezuela apart from the rest of the world: 303 billion barrels of so-called proven oil reserves. But experts say the country’s estimate is inherently problematic and far from proven. They call it rooted in exaggerated, aging data…

www,finanzasdigital.com The official figure of 303 billion barrels in proven oil reserves that Venezuela has before the world is "intrinsically problematic" and lacks...

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The Independent broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Thursday, October 22, 2026.
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