US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline: Reuters
Officials say delays in military readiness and Taiwan’s 2028 election make a near-term Chinese invasion less likely, despite Xi Jinping’s 2027 readiness goal.
- On Thursday, October 1, 2026, US officials stated a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's standing order for military forces to be ready by 2027.
- China's military readiness has been hindered by an anti-corruption campaign that purged senior leadership from the People's Liberation Army; officials noted Beijing is studying wars in Ukraine and Iran to avoid protracted operations.
- Analysts clarify the 2027 benchmark signifies military preparedness rather than an invasion timeline; one official remarked the operation would be the most difficult attempted "probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy."
- President Donald Trump has withheld a $14 billion arms package, describing it as a "negotiating chip," while officials believe Beijing may await 2028 US election outcomes despite broad American political alignment.
- Risks could escalate in 2028 and beyond if the Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive term; "If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty," one official said.
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According to officials, among the main reasons there would be the heavy delays caused by anti-corruption campaigns within the army and the strategic choice to wait for the outcome of the presidential elections in Taiwan just in 2028
Chinese invasion unlikely to occur next year: sources
US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) instructions for his military to be ready by 2027 to take Taiwan by force, if needed, people familiar with US thinking said.The main reasons for the belief include dela
American authorities believe that an invasion of Taiwan by China before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's instructions, so that his Armed Forces are ready by 2027 to take by force, if necessary, the democratically ruled island, told people aware of the US assessment.
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- 42% of the sources are Center, 41% of the sources lean Right
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