U.S. Intel Finds Putin Could Test NATO’s Resolve With Limited Incursion: WSJ
U.S. officials say a limited incursion or hybrid attack could come as early as this fall and test NATO’s Article 5 commitments.
- New U.S. intelligence reports suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin may soon attempt to challenge NATO's resolve by conducting a limited military or cyber strike against a member state.
- The assessment reflects a shift in intelligence perspectives, as officials now believe Putin may seek to fracture the alliance to distract from ongoing struggles and domestic pressure regarding the war in Ukraine.
- Potential scenarios for such provocations range from small-scale ground incursions to cyberattacks, intended to test the alliance's political cohesion.
- These concerns are exacerbated by significant U.S. military supply shortages, specifically regarding long-range precision-guided missiles and tactical air defense systems, which have been depleted by global conflicts.
- While the Kremlin's long-term objectives remain centered on undermining confidence in NATO, the potential for a direct, limited confrontation is now considered a near-term possibility as the war in Ukraine continues.
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An American report relayed by the "Wall Street Journal" on Friday is raising the risk of Russian provocation against an allied country in the coming years.
For the first time, U.S. intelligence no longer excludes a limited attack by Russia even during the Ukraine war - a security risk.
US intel assesses Putin could launch attack aimed at testing NATO unity
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years, according to three sources familiar with those reports.
The United States previously assessed that Putin would not provoke the Alliance as long as Russia waged war in Ukraine. However, U.S. officials told the WSJ earlier this year, that assessment changed. Putin is under increasing pressure from the situation in Ukraine and domestic pressures to secure victory. American officials fear that Putin could become more dangerous if his back is against the wall. What are the options for a Russian operation?…
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