US Inflation Held Steady at 2.4% Annual Pace in February Before Middle East Energy Impact
U.S. consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, with analysts forecasting a sharp inflation increase in March due to surging oil and gasoline prices after the Iran conflict.
- On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI showing annual inflation was unchanged at 2.4% in February.
- Monthly data show prices rose 0.3% month‑over‑month in February, faster than January's 0.2%, while economists had forecasted a 0.3% monthly increase and an annual rate of 2.5%.
- The timing matters because the February data were gathered before the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, and the two‑week conflict has already pushed up energy costs and raised pump prices for Americans.
- FOMC members will meet next week to decide rates, with CME FedWatch showing nearly a 100% chance of a hold despite the Friday jobs report revealing a 92,000 job loss last month.
- Economists predict Iran War effects to appear in the next report with a March CPI uptick, while Cory Stahle warns job seekers face tougher conditions amid 92,000 jobs lost last month.
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Recession and stagflation risks are rising due to Iran conflict, as economist warns it’s ‘getting harder to argue disruption will be temporary’
"Clearly, the longer that oil remains at these levels, expectations of a sustained shock will only grow," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said.
Inflation rose to 3.21% in February, but US-Israel-Iran war impact yet to be felt
The data for February is the second inflation print under the updated Consumer Price Index series which has a base year of 2024 for prices and comes ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision in early April.
Inflation holds steady in February
US ECONOMY
US inflation report ‘obsolete’ amid war
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