Wake Up, The US Recession is Already Here

Wake Up, The US Recession is Already Here

Key Points The U.S. GDP unexpectedly declined by 0.3% in the latest quarter versus expectations for 0.3% growth, meeting the textbook definition of a recession if another negative quarter follows. A mild recession is possible if the next quarter contracts slightly again, though trade tensions and tariffs, particularly with China, remain key risks that could deepen the downturn. Consumer sentiment indicators are notably weak, and investor atte…

Charted: America's GDP Decline in Q1 2025

See this visualization first on the Voronoi app. Use This Visualization Charted: America’s GDP Decline in Q1 2025 This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources. The U.S. economy is starting to show signs of weakness as Q1 2025 real GDP declined amidst the ongoing trade disruptions from Trump’s tariffs and government spending …

Has the U.S. Already Gone Off the Fiscal Cliff?

(Rich Santomaro) - In political circles, the term “fiscal cliff” is often used as a rhetorical device—a warning of what might happen if Congress fails to act. But what if the United States isn’t standing near the edge of a cliff anymore, but has already gone over it—and just hasn't hit the ground yet?...

The economy avoided a second quarterly contraction in the first quarter, but is not yet out of danger. The damage caused by US protectionist policies will become evident in the second quarter. Therefore, it is too early to rule out a recession. Our base scenario remains unchanged, anticipating a slight contraction in the year caused by prolonged domestic weakness and the adverse effects of US protectionist policies.

US economic growth fell into the red in the first quarter for the first time in three years. While the European economy grew 1.6 percent quarter-on-quarter (and annualized), the US economy shrank by 0.3 percent. Its slowdown compared to previous quarters, when US growth was two to...

The Fire Hose of Chaos: Recession Time - Zeihan on Geopolitics

What do you get when you mix overly aggressive trade measures and a poor economic plan? Trump’s idea of a great start. Or, as I like to call it, a policy-induced recession. Here’s what’s happening.Cargo shipments from China have collapsed and shortages will begin in a month or so. Trump’s eager to dump $1 trillion into new deficit spending, raising capital costs. Those DOGE cuts failed to offset spending and have backfired. Customer confidence i…