US EditionUnusual Polymarket Bets on Nobel Peace Prize Winner Spur Probe on Leak
Record bets totaling over $1.8 million surged on María Corina Machado as winner hours before the announcement, prompting the Norwegian Nobel Committee to investigate possible insider trading.
- On Friday, 10 October 2025, María Corina Machado was named the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate in Oslo, while large wagers on Polymarket surged hours before the announcement.
- A newly registered Polymarket account 6741 placed a single large wager on Machado hours before the announcement, while @dirtycup and Polymarket whales boosted positions with high-value bets.
- Platform data shows a total volume of $21,461,938, with around USD 1.85 million traded between 2 a.m. and 11 a.m. Oslo time.
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee denied any leak, and Kristian Berg Harpviken, Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, said the Institute will examine the circumstances but cautioned it is too early to conclude.
- Journalists and anti-fraud experts urged scrutiny when Philippe Auclair called the data consistent with a leak and Nick Raudenski called it a 'clear warning signal'; prediction markets and regulators will likely scrutinise more closely.
104 Articles
104 Articles
After unusual bets on María Corina Machado the Nobel Institute suspects espionage. A leak largely excludes director Harpviken.
The award for María Corina Machado may have come as little surprise to some. A few hours before the Nobel Prize was awarded, there had been high online bets.
'It seems we have been prey to criminal actor': Did Nobel Peace Prize leak? Norway probes suspicious polymarket bets
Norwegian officials are investigating suspicious online betting activity on Polymarket that suggests a leak from the Nobel Peace Prize committee. Bets on Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado surged dramatically shortly before she was announced as the 2025 laureate, raising concerns ...
Nobel Peace Prize 2025 Committee Launches Investigation Into Surge in Bets for Winner Maria Corina Machado, Polymarket Reacts | 🌎 LatestLY
The Nobel Peace Prize 2025 committee is investigating a potential leak after online betting surged on Polymarket in favour of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado just hours before she was announced as this year’s winner. According to reports, Nobel Peace Prize 2025 winner Machado was polling at about 3.7% on Polymarket. 🌎 Nobel Peace Prize 2025 Committee Launches Investigation Into Surge in Bets for Winner Maria Corina Machado, Po…
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