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UK-US Pharma Deal Could Lead to Nearly 230,000 Unnecessary Deaths in England, Analysis Says

BMJ researchers said the deal would force the NHS to spend an extra £44.7 billion by 2036 and could lead to 229,000 excess deaths.

  • A British Medical Journal study warns the UK-US pharmaceutical deal could cause roughly 229,000 excess deaths by 2036, as the National Health Service diverts billions of pounds toward new US medicines.
  • Signed on December 1, the agreement prevents US tariffs on British pharmaceutical exports until January 19, 2029; in return, Britain committed to increasing NHS spending on new US medicines to at least 0.6 percent of GDP by 2036.
  • Science Minister Patrick Vallance argued the deal grants "life-changing new medicines," but Samuel Cross of the University of Liverpool said the agreement "benefits pharmaceutical companies" at NHS patients' cost, totaling £44.7 billion in opportunity costs.
  • NHS Alliance CEO Ciarán Devane said findings raise "serious questions" about value for patients, while SNP MSP Michelle Campbell called the report "absolutely damning," as critics argue the government prioritized pharmaceutical investment in England over frontline services.
  • Including indirect impacts on adult social care, total excess deaths could reach 291,000, with the research predicting the greatest harm among patients with cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal, and cancer conditions.
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  • 46% of the sources are Center
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Medical Xpress broke the news on Wednesday, July 1, 2026.
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