US EditionUK Population Forecast to Hit 71 Million by 2034 Amid Slower Growth and Falling Migration
Net migration will drive all growth as the number of deaths is projected to exceed births by nearly 450,000 over the next decade, ONS said.
- On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics projected The United Kingdom's population will reach 71.0 million by mid-2034, down from a previous estimate of 72.2 million due to lower migration and fertility assumptions.
- Net migration peaked near 1 million in 2023 before falling to 204,000 in the 12 months to June 2025, a shift the ONS now treats as a "blip" rather than an ongoing trend, according to Dr Madeleine Sumption of the Migration Observatory.
- The number of pensioners is expected to rise 15% to 14.2 million by 2034, while children under 16 will fall by 13%, placing significant pressure on the NHS and wider public finances.
- Stuart McDonald, head of longevity and demographic insights at LCP, warned the ageing population "will add to pressure on the NHS, the state pension and the wider public finances," with hospital care accounting for over 80% of end-of-life healthcare spending.
- The United Kingdom's population is projected to peak at 72.5 million in 2054 before entering decline, as James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, stated: "the population is projected to peak in the 2050s before decreasing.
16 Articles
16 Articles
UK population to grow slower than predicted before 2050s decline
The UK population is projected to grow more slowly than previously predicted over the next few decades, driven by lower net migration, before starting to decline in the mid-2050s, new ONS projections reveal.
Britain's population growth to be entirely reliant on migration as number of UK nationals to decline by 2050s
Fresh projections from the Office for National Statistics suggest Britain's population growth may entirely rely on migrants as a decline of native Britons looms within the next 30 years.The revised figures represent a significant downgrade from earlier estimates, driven primarily by a dramatic 69 per cent reduction in legal net migration, alongside falling birth rates.Net migration fell to an estimated 204,000 in the year ending June 2025, compa…
Evening Standard
UK population projected to grow at slower rate before falling in mid-2050s
Projections have been revised downwards to reflect the recent sharp fall in net migration.
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