UBS Forecasts Two US Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 After Strong Jobs Report
UBS said the stronger-than-expected jobs report changed its call and now sees 25-basis-point hikes in September and December.
- UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December, shifting from previous no-change expectations after Friday's jobs report showed 162,000 new positions.
- Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole in August, combined with steady 4.1% unemployment, prompted UBS to revise its outlook on monetary policy direction.
- Financial markets are pricing in roughly 58% odds of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee's September 15-16 meeting, up from 52% on Thursday, CME's FedWatch tool showed.
- Strategists led by Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS Switzerland, recommend buying equity dips and reducing dollar holdings while abandoning short- to medium-duration bond strategies.
- A Fed tightening cycle driven by economic strength rather than inflation control presents different portfolio outcomes, UBS noted, as analysts remain positioned for AI-related investments and structural growth opportunities.
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Strong jobs and CPI risks – BNY
BNY Markets strategist John Velis says a strong United States (US) jobs report has pushed expectations for a September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike back above 60%, despite Governor Christopher Waller’s more cautious comments. He expects the Fed to raise rates two or three times over the coming months, potentially taking policy above the roughly […]
UBS forecasts two US Fed rate hikes in 2026 after strong jobs report
Strong U.S. jobs revive expectations for two Fed rate hikes in 2026
UBS has sharply revised its U.S. interest-rate outlook, forecasting two Federal Reserve rate increases before the end of 2026 after surprisingly strong employment growth reinforced evidence that the world’s largest economy can withstand tighter monetary policy. The Swiss bank now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at both its […]
UBS Global Wealth Management predicts the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September and December.
UBS now expects 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026 after strong August
🔔 UBS now sees two Fed rate hikes in 2026, reversing its earlier prediction. 💡 Strong US jobs growth in August boosted probabilities for a September hike. 📈 UBS favors equities linked to AI and warns gold could face short-term pressure. 🕰️ $BTC investors face c...
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