UBS Forecasts Two US Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 After Strong Jobs Report
UBS said the stronger-than-expected jobs report changed its call and now sees 25-basis-point hikes in September and December.
- UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December, shifting from previous no-change expectations after Friday's jobs report showed 162,000 new positions.
- Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole in August, combined with steady 4.1% unemployment, prompted UBS to revise its outlook on monetary policy direction.
- Financial markets are pricing in roughly 58% odds of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee's September 15-16 meeting, up from 52% on Thursday, CME's FedWatch tool showed.
- Strategists led by Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS Switzerland, recommend buying equity dips and reducing dollar holdings while abandoning short- to medium-duration bond strategies.
- A Fed tightening cycle driven by economic strength rather than inflation control presents different portfolio outcomes, UBS noted, as analysts remain positioned for AI-related investments and structural growth opportunities.
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UBS forecasts two US Fed rate hikes in 2026 after strong jobs report
UBS sees two Fed hikes in 2026: what should investors buy
UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report reinforced expectations of a resilient US economy. The bank now forecasts 25-basis-point rate hikes in both September and December, reversing its earlier call for no policy changes in 2026. The shift comes as markets reassess the Fed’s policy outlook following stronger employment data and hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin …
UBS and Goldman Sachs Announce FED Expectations: Friday Will Be Very Critical! How Will Bitcoin Be Affected? Here Are the Details
UBS predicts the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points each month in September and December. What will be the impact on Bitcoin? Continue Reading: UBS and Goldman Sachs Announce FED Expectations: Friday Will Be Very Critical!...
UBS revised its Fed forecast following strong US employment data. Previously expecting interest rates to remain flat throughout 2026, the bank now forecasts two 25 basis point rate hikes in September and December.
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